On November 21, 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Uzbekistan's long-term sovereign credit ratings in both foreign and local currency from 'BB-' to 'BB'. The outlook remains stable, balancing the country's resilient economic growth against risks of rising external and fiscal leverage.
Short-term ratings were affirmed at 'B', while the transfer and convertibility assessment was raised to 'BB+' from 'BB-'. This marks the first sovereign rating upgrade for Uzbekistan by an international agency in seven years, reflecting significant progress in economic reform implementation.
Key factors behind the agency's decision:
Strong and sustained economic growth supported by successful structural reforms
Substantial strengthening of foreign currency reserves, particularly driven by gold production
Favorable government debt profile with a large proportion of concessional financing (84% of external debt on preferential terms)
Improved monetary policy effectiveness and gradual reduction in banking sector dollarization
S&P analysts highlight that Uzbekistan's banking sector demonstrates resilience with favorable development prospects. Low financial inclusion and limited retail lending penetration create substantial potential for further banking business expansion in the coming years.
The stable outlook reflects the agency's expectation that strong growth and manageable debt levels will offset risks of potential fiscal and external deficit widening. Further rating upgrades are possible if budget and external gaps narrow without compromising economic growth momentum.
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